The Indian Navy is a formidable force in the Indian Ocean region with no regional competitors matching its size or capacity. It possesses significant military assets to guard the huge Indian coastline and protect its Island territories of Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep Islands. The Indian Navy operates one aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya and is awaiting for the commissioning of the second aircraft carrier INS Vikrant in 2022. Indian Navy also makes up the nuclear triad of the country with it two SSBNs the INS Arihant and the INS Arighat both carrying 4 nuclear tipped missiles each.
The Indian Navy is one of the few navies of the world to operate Aircraft carriers and ballistic missile carrying nuclear submarines but this is just the cream on top. the Indian Navy does possess such exclusive capabilities but there are some chinks in its armor when it comes to its submarine fleet. The Indian Navy operates three types of conventional attack submarines besides two indigenous nuclear subs and one leased Akula class Russian nuclear submarine for training purpose.
Diesel Electric Submarines of Indian Navy
1. Sindhughosh Class (8 Submarines)
These Russian built submarines displace 3076 tons and form the backbone of the Indian submarine fleet. The first submarine was purchased in 1986 and last one came in 2000 and out of the 10 submarines initially purchased only 8 remain operational now.
2. Shishumar Class (4 Submarines) 
These German made submarines started joining the Indian navy fleet in 1986 and the last vessel came in 1994. This class of vessel displaces 1850 tons, although the original plan envisaged purchase of 6 vessels but due to lack of funds only 4 submarines materialized into reality.
3. Kalvari Class (3 Submarines + 3 under construction) 
This is the newest baby of the Indian submarine fleet and the most potent platform to take to war. These French submarines are built in India under transfer of technology by Mazagon Docks Limited. These vessels displace 1775 tons and are the most technologically advanced submarines of the Navy and will soon be fitted with indigenous Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) technology as part of their first refit which will further enhance their capability and lethality. The last submarine will be commissioned in 2023 after which the Mazagon Dock facilities will be lying idle due to lack of further orders.
Future Plans
The future plans of the Indian navy submarine fleet comprise of 4 additional nuclear ballistic submarines being built by Hindustan Shipyard Limited and purchase of six air independent propulsion (AIP) enabled diesel electric submarines under the project 75I. These submarines will be of larger displacement than any of the current navy submarines and will take the place of of the ageing Russian built Sindhughosh class in the future. The project cost could go up to $10 Billion and given the constraint on budget, its going to be a tough ask. The project is in initial stages and it will be a long long walk to finalize the foreign submarine vendor, transfer of Technology terms and the final negotiations with the construction shipyard. This project is likely to meet the same fate as the Indian Air Force MMRCA program with no real output after wasting years and years of precious time because when it will come to the final stage signing the deal, the mathematics of money is not going to work out with the philosophy of desire of the Indian military. The Navy is also pursuing big ticket projects like a third air craft carrier and a new naval fighter to replace Mig- 29K and this will cause a further drain on the limited resources of the navy and the budget strings are unlikely to expand in the near future because of the Covid pandemic, which has caused a great jolt to the economy and the government revenues have been significantly impacted and this will surely have repercussions on the defense budget.
Recently there has been some talk regarding constructing 3 nuclear attack submarines instead of pursuing the Project 75I and some recommendations have been made regarding constructing an additional 3 Scorpene / Kalvari class submarines. The navy is highly unlikely to go for additional Kalvari class submarines though they look like the most feasible and probably an economically viable addition to the submarine fleet. The expansion of the Kalvari class submarine fleet will add economies of scale, save foreign exchange compared to a new class of submarine and bring the navy huge logistical and maintenance savings in the future. The cost of training a new crew for a new submarine type will also be saved but all these benefits mean little to the navy as they seek a new submarine class for capability enhancement. An unfortunate situation is likely to be occur because there will probably be no thorough study to assess the opportunity cost of such actions nor the principles of defense economics and planned budgeting will be able to alter the mindset of Indian Naval Warfare Planners who are always on the look out for better capabilities and new platforms to add to their firepower for any future eventualities.
The construction of nuclear attack submarine plan is the second most feasible plan for adding submarine numbers, the first obviously being the purchase of additional Kalvari class submarines with AIP technology. The nuclear attack submarines can be constructed in India utilizing the platform of indigenous Arihant class submarines but these submarines will be very expensive to build, will require tremendous redesigning and most importantly a new type of nuclear reactor to power them. The probability of all these variables materializing into an executable project in a reasonable frame of time is really low given the efficiency of Indian bureaucracy coupled with lengthy defense procurement procedures.
The Conclusion
The Indian Navy needs to carry out a balancing act with increasing the fleet strength and procuring advanced capabilities because of the mounting challenges in Indian Ocean and the alarming expansion of the Chinese Navy also known by its weird official name as People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and those guys surely live up to their acronym as they have a serious plan for the future. The Indian Navy needs to think out of the box solutions to counter the Chinese threat and ensure a greater dominance in the Indian Ocean Region. The Chinese are not only boosting their own naval strength but also lending immense support and equipment to the Pakistan Navy. The much touted two front war scenario will be the most challenging for the Indian Navy out of all the three services. The Indian Army is likely to muster sufficient human resources and logistics to deploy on both the fronts simultaneously and the Indian Air Force plans to generate higher sortie rates and move aircraft aircraft from one theater to another as per mission requirements but the Indian Navy is unlikely to be able to do either of these things. The Assets of the Navy will be divided into the eastern and western fleets in case of a war and moving assets between the regions would neither be quick nor impactful and the Navy seemingly lacks the brute numbers to simultaneously fight on the eastern and western fronts given the vast area of responsibility it caters to as it needs to defend the tip Gujarat coast and stretch all the way up to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
The likely solution for Indian Navy is neither in adding sheer numbers nor in acquiring advanced capabilities but in efficient economics. Smart economic management coupled with indigenous manufacturing should give the Indian Navy the maximum bang for the buck and timely induction of capable platforms. The chase of prestige and high ticket purchases, though good for the long term could be counter productive in the short to medium term scenario of an untimely conflict. The Indian naval plans need to quickly adapt to the changing geo-political situation and the fast paced race for the dominance of the Indian Ocean. The onus though isn't only on the naval planners but also on the greater humans by virtue of clearing the IAS exam, our beloved God like BABUS manning the desks at the Ministry of Defence and Ministry of Finance, who as always will play a crucial role to determine the fate of Indian Submarine fleet and and India's naval power in the Indian Ocean region.
