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| Areas under Taliban control as on May 25, 2020 (Image source :RFE/RL) |
The US Taliban peace deal seems to be heading in a direction where Taliban seems like the winner. A ceasefire is being put in place, which the Taliban is yet to observe in spirit because the Afghan National Security Forces are being killed on a daily basis. The afghan national intelligence agency NDS personnel have been targeted deliberately while Taliban have also managed to get many of their prisoners released under this peace deal which is a boost to their fighting ranks. The American hurry to pull out of Afghanistan before the US presidential elections has been efficiently exploited by the Taliban leadership and the Pakistani deep state. The Taliban is gaining more ground each day which gives them a higher leverage in a power sharing set up with the recognized Afghan government. It is an implausible possibility that, a democratic government can share power with an Islamic terror group propagating the law of Sharia but the Americans are trying desperately to make this work. The American objective is plain and simple, they want to get their troops back home and Donald Trump wants to win the next election by fulfilling his poll promise of a complete Afghan exit. The United States exit from Afghanistan seems to work well for the US policy makers because they have understood that its a war they cannot win, their people don't support it and they are draining their resources on a lost cause. The Unites States of America is leaving the Afghan people to fend for themselves after a 20 year war against terrorism and Al-Qaeda, neither of which have been completely eliminated. The American forces want to leave because they know, they will not be able to eliminate terrorism completely or establish a functional democracy in Afghanistan but they have somewhat achieved their objective. The American national security experts are certain that Afghanistan is not a major threat to their nation anymore and another 9/11 attack will not be executed from Afghanistan because they have enough intelligence assets and preventive measures embedded in Afghanistan now.
A low threat analysis from Afghanistan for the Americans, has a very different perception for countries like India. A strong Taliban in Afghanistan which is essentially supported by Pakistan military establishment and has close ties to the notorious Pakistani Intelligence agency namely the ISI (Inter Services Intelligence) can be a grave danger to the security and peace of India. The Kashmir insurgency which began in the late 1980s was a consequence of Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan and diversion of surplus religious terrorists called the Mujahideen to the Kashmir Valley. The militants of Afghan Jihad brought along with them the brutality and religious sycophancy they had used so effectively in Afghanistan. They began their butchery by targeted killings of non Muslim Kashmiris which led to the exodus of the Kashmiri Pandits in the early part of 1990. This kind of religious discrimination and lunacy were unheard of in India and a weak coalition government of the time could not counter it effectively. The Kashmiri populace which lived in peace and religious harmony for centuries was now religiously divided by the Afghan Mujahideen influx into the valley. History is a testament that religious extremism and terrorism cannot be limited to geographical boundaries and will affect the whole region. The Islamic radicalism from Afghanistan has had a long term effect on the economy, society, politics and culture of Pakistan which supported the Afghan terror groups all throughout the Afghan war with the Soviets. Pakistan has seen significantly increased violence, terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism after the Soviet Afghan the war than before it and a further rise is guaranteed if the Taliban is back at the helm of affairs in Afghanistan.
The Challenge for India will be to deal with the after effects of the Taliban coming to power in Afghanistan. India will be more prone to terrorism, bombings, hijacks and Islamic fundamentalism than ever before because Pakistani establishment will exploit this opportunity to drive the insurgency in Kashmir as well as carry out vicious terror attacks on mainland Indian cities using Afghan terror groups like ISIS-K (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant – Khorasan Province ). The ISIS-K is fringe terror group based in Afghanistan created by Pakistani intelligence agency ISI which recently carried out attacks on the Sikh Gurudwara in Kabul killing many unarmed innocents. The ISIS-K was quick to claim responsibility for the attack and justified the killings of innocents by identifying them as non believers or Kafirs. A terror group like ISIS-K helps Pakistani deep state to carry out heinous terror attacks on India while protecting the Pakistani state from any blame or risk of retaliatory actions like a Balakot airstrike conducted in 2019. It is a convenient arrangement for the Pakistani establishment to carry out more and more terror attacks on Indians while condemning their own proxy terror groups on international platforms.
India is at a great risk from the combined collusion of Taliban and Pakistan Military operating out of Afghanistan and bleeding India through thousand cuts. This is the so called strategic depth the Pakistani Military is seeking to achieve in Afghanistan through the establishment of a Taliban regime. The options India has to avoid such a dreadful scenario is to either depend on the United States and hope they do not let this happen. It is the easier option and will only work if it also satisfies US interests as Americans are not known for selfless charity. The more difficult but robust option for India is to put its troops on the ground to support the Afghan National Army's fight against the Taliban. Indian Troops in Afghanistan will ensure a longer life span for a friendly Afghan democracy, deeper strategic Indo-US ties, better security for India and less terrorism in Kashmir. Indian troop deployment in Afghanistan serves American interests by helping them make a quick exit, without handing over the country back to the dreaded Taliban, who are a greater threat to India than the United States in the near term. Indian troops in Afghanistan comes with many tangible benefits but it has its cons too. The Political cost for such a move can be huge and the resultant repercussions can have long term effects on domestic Indian politics as well as future election results. The battle hardened Indian Soldiers will definitely turn the tide of war against the enemies of India but will the Indian Politician for once show the same selflessness and courage that the Indian solider has depicted over the years for safety and security of the nation.
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| Taliban Controlled Areas as of June 2019 (Image source : Al Jazeera) |








