The dwindling squadron strength of the Indian Air Force has been an ongoing discussion for decades. The IAF has not been able to finalize a procurement plan for over two decades now and is reeling under pressure of losing its combat edge over its adversaries, China and Pakistan. The PAF and PLAAF are similar in equipment and armament as Pakistan depends on China for military hardware after the US arms embargo. Pakistan also has some F-16 Block 52 and some really old Mirage III and Mirage 5 in its arsenal but in terms of technological superiority IAF is better than its competitors. Technological superiority in terms of combat does not necessarily guarantee a victory because the number of aircrafts are equally important along with the tactics and weaponry.
China is much superior to India in terms of sheer numbers and Pakistan has chosen the same path by procuring a large number of cheap JF-17 aircrafts. It is a good strategy against a technologically superior enemy as they can throw a large number of aircraft to counter fewer high tech aircraft of the adversary. This strategy was adopted by the Pakistan Air Force on 27th February 2019, when they threw a package of 24 aircraft to counter Indian Air Force combat patrols of 2 Mirage 2000 and 2 Sukhoi 30 MKI. The Pakistani Air force is particularly scared of the Mirage 2000, therefore they avoided engaging the aircraft that day and took long range potshots at Sukhoi 30 MKI, which they missed like all other targets they planned to attack. The reason for fear of Mirage 2000 is that the aircraft has repeatedly turned out victorious in engagements with F-16. The most famous engagements being between Greek Mirage 2000 and Turkish F-16 which resulted in the Greeks bullying the F-16 repeatedly. Mirage 2000 is superior to anything that Pakistan can throw, therefore was the first choice aircraft to bomb Jabba Top terrorist camp in Balakot.
Mirage 2000 Vajra
Mirage 2000 is a single engine Delta wing fighter with combat proven abilities and Indian Air force have expertise in maintenance as well as tinkering with the aircraft. The Indian Air Force jugaad approach combined with Israeli ingenuity resulted in integration of Russian R-73 missile with the French Mirage 2000. The Kargil war was another case, when Israelis helped integrate their Litening laser designator pods on the Mirage 2000 to drop IAF's first Laser guided bombs in actual combat.
The aircraft is highly regarded for performance, range and combat load, Mirage 2000 also shoulders the responsibility of nuclear weapons delivery. It has so many merits but we have only about 50 of these aircraft, adding more of these aircraft to the inventory adds to both the strength and capability of IAF but unfortunately they are no longer manufactured. A deal for a squadron of second hand Mirage 2000 purchase from Qatar was discussed in 2000s but fell apart due to pricing differences. Brazil has already retired and sold its aircraft. Taiwan, Greece and Qatar fly the Mirage 2000-5 variant besides the French Air Force. Egypt and UAE also operate the aircraft but their inventory has not been fully upgraded to latest standards and upgradation of the Mirage 2000 is a huge hurdle owing to the costs involved.
The Possible Solution
The solution to the falling squadron strength can be solved by additional purchases of used Mirage 2000 aircraft but this solution has its own challenges of execution. The current Indian Air Force Mirage fleet is being upgraded at a huge cost of $2.1 billion dollars and purchasing any old aircraft will add to this bill. The current fleet of operating Mirage 2000 aircrafts around the world are near the end of their airframe life but still are sturdy enough to be used after an overhaul and life extension. Pakistan Air Force has done something similar under its ROSE project where they have put to use vintage Mirage III and Mirage 5 airframes and upgraded the aircraft for limited combat role. The upgradation cost for the existing Mirage fleet is so high that IAF would not want to take that route especially when the aircraft are touted to be retired in the next decade. The upgraded standard aircraft are only available with the Greece, Taiwan or Qatar. The Qatar deal has not worked out in the past and is unlikely to be rekindled. The Greeks have the latest upgraded of the Mirage 2000-5 MkII but their willingness to sell them is not certain. Taiwan operates the Mirage 2000-5 EI standard which has no mid air refueling or ground attack ability, also buying aircraft from Taiwan will have geopolitical repercussions from China. The Egyptian Mirages are the oldest of the lot and are not viable due to their age and upgradation requirements. The UAE is currently in process of upgrading its Mirage 2000 fleet to 2000-9 standards and is likely keep the aircraft in service. The last remaining contender are the French who are in possession of more than 300 Mirage 2000 airframes, out of which 100 are in active service. The French can sell, upgrade and overhaul the aircraft but would extract a hefty price for doing so, as they are competing for the MMRCA contract and purchase of old Mirages also affects the additional deliveries of already ordered Rafael jets by IAF. The French are expected to extract very high profits from any such deal because it hampers their future business prospects for sale of their current fighter platform Rafael.
Back to the Problem
The only viable option that can deliver good value for money are the Greek Mirage 2000-5 MkII, as they are already upgraded to latest standards and may be available at a good price owing to the current economic crisis being faced around the world. Hypothetically even if this deal materializes somehow it still doesn't solve the problem as the number of upgraded aircraft available with the Greeks are a meagre 25. It does add one and a half squadron strength to the IAF but the problem of raking up the numbers still exists as Mig-21s are to retire soon and no future procurements are finalized yet which can add up the necessary numbers. This solution does not also eliminate the MMRCA 2.0 tender which the IAF is about to float for a purchase of 114 aircraft. The IAF has looming problems and stop gap purchases of 21 Mig-29 and 12 Sukhoi 30 or even some used Mirage 2000 fighters are not going to solve them completely. The only fast and feasible solution in my opinion is to get rid of the tendering process to culminate a Rafael style government to government deal as a fast track procurement measure. The aircraft can be chosen by the IAF based on their budgetary constraints and operational requirements, as they have tested all the available aircraft in the MMRCA tender previously. The only hindrance to such a deal is the political ramifications it may cause for the ruling party but the Modi led BJP government has pulled off many stunts in its tenure and this could be another feather in their tough and bold decisions crown.
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